A word on santions...

Since the Suu Kyi verdict, an appeal has been raised and denied, and a bloody conflict along the Chinese border has been fought. State Department spokesperson PJ Crowley has commented that the Burma policy review has been completed, and many who were hoping the Obama administration would continue to relax sanctions (as he has in Cuba) might be disappointed. Senator Jim Webb, who visited with Suu Kyi shortly after the verdict was released, commented in a press conference at Yangon airport Than Shwe's government had made the decision to release American prisoner John Yettaw (who was imprisoned for swimming across Inya Lake to visit Suu Kyi on two occasions without permission) on humanitarian grounds, and that he was grateful to the government for their cooperation. Suu Kyi will be unable to participate in the upcoming election due to the failure of the appeals.

The Kokang conflict in Shan state, during which Chinese civilians were injured and thousands of rebels and Myanmar residents fled across the border into Yunnan province, saw a typically tacit and supportive regime in Beijing to issue a statement similar to the statement issued by the US State Department. The Myanmar government was urged to resolve the conflict peacefully. Government mouthpiece New Light of Myanmar ran stories claiming border towns Laukkai and Nansan which had been caught in crossfire were perfectly peaceful within a week of the conflict. "An inspiring visit to Laukkai," the headlines read, "a stable peaceful town."

So what will Hillary Clinton make of this when deciding whether to lift sanctions? Many Myanmar business owners and workers are eager for the US to once again become a trading partner, especially those in the garment business. Many Myanmar citizens genuinely believe that the decline of the Myanmar economy and its inability to bounce back has to do with trade sanctions. The US government's agenda, to establish democracy, political freedom, and equal rights for ethnic minorities, would be best served by maintaining sanctions to pressure the government into complying. The sanctions, according to analysts on Burma Economic Watch and others, are strategically planned to impact mostly the government and not the average worker. So why haven't they worked yet? Is it all China's fault, for investing in Myanmar behind the western world's back? Lifting sanctions would just allow for more money to end up in the wrong peoples' pockets, right?

It's generally accepted that sanctions put pressure on the Myanmar government, but what about the idea that lifting sanctions pressures the government just as much? If the US engages with Myanmar as a trading partner, whom will the government blame for the widespread poverty? In many ways, lifting sanctions puts far more pressure on Than Shwe and Naypyidaw to start passing legislation that will build a free economy.